Prepare now for climate change

 To avert the worst affects of climate change, attention has rightly been focused on the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Even if emissions are rapidly reduced, however, it will take 75 to 100 years for the climate to restabilize. Significant climate impacts are now unavoidable. Every business should understand and prepare for these risks.

Early this year my program at the University of Oregon launched a project to help private companies, government and citizens understand and prepare for the risks of climate change. We started in the Rogue River Basin of southwest Oregon.

We analyzed the likely affects of climate change using three models operated under the 'A2' high emission scenario (the path the world is currently following) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  Panels of scientists and policy experts assessed the likely consequences for natural, economic, built and human systems and recommended strategies for preparing for those affects.

Each of the climate models predict that temperatures in the basin will rise by 1 degree to 3 degrees farenhieit by around 2040 and by another 4 degrees to 8 degrees by 2080. Summer temperatures will skyrocket, with temperatures 7 degrees to 15 degrees higher by 2080 than they are today. While the models predict that total precipitation may stay roughly the same, more will fall in the winter and the region is likely to experience more drought.

Hotter temperatures are projected to  decrease snowpack by 25 percent to 75 percent by 2040 and by another 25 percent to 75 percent by 2080. Snowmelt will occur earlier in the spring leading to lower stream flows extending well past summer months.

The models also project more severe wind and rainstorms, variable weather and higher and flashier winter and spring flooding. Hotter temperatures and reduced snowpack are projected to significantly increase the size and frequency of wildfires.